After Order: Europe’s Transition to a Post-Western World, 1989-2023

On September 8, 2023, the Berggruen Research Center at Peking University invited Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies at the University of Oxford, and Lu Xiaoyu, 2022-2023 Berggruen Fellow and Assistant Professor of International Politics at Peking University, for the 22nd Berggruen Seminar Series titled “After Order: Europe’s Transition to a Post-Western World, 1989-2023.” The dialogue was live-streamed via Zoom Webinar and divided into two sections: a one-hour lecture by Prof. Garton Ash based on his newest publication Homelands: A Personal History of Europe, followed by a one-hour discussion session moderated by Prof. Lu. The webinar attracted over 400 attendees from across the world.

From a “Post-War” Era to a “Post-Wall” Era: A Historical Outlook

Garton Ash’s lecture first elucidated the historical trajectory that Europe went through from the end of World War II until the invasion of Russia into Ukraine in 2022. He demonstrated that, despite the loss of status as a geopolitical center after World War II, Europe still played its role as a central theater of geopolitics in the “Post-War” era. The divided Berlin located at the heart of the continent epitomized the bipolar partitioning of new political and ideological superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union.

The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union ceased this bipolarity and Europe transitioned from a “Post-War” era to a “Post-Wall” era. From the liberal European perspective Garton Ash subscribes to, European history since 1989 can be divided into two parts. The first phase was from 1989 to 2007 when Europe as an entirety promoted institutional solidarity through the expansion of the European Union and the North American Treaty Organization, as well as the enlargement of areas that endorse liberal democracy, freedom of speech, and movement of personnel. This history was shifted in 2008 with the eve of the global financial crisis and Vladimir Putin’s military invasion of two territories in Georgia, both of which triggered a series of events to cascade, such as the Eurozone crisis and the subsequent youth unemployment crisis in Southern Europe, the rise of populism and extremist policies, refugee and health crises, and Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in chronological order.

Garton Ash argued that “hubris” — excessive and even delusional self-confidence — in European systems, institutions, and ideologies, was the cause of such a downward turn of the continent. Europe’s self-confidence was manifested in the form of what Garton Ash calls a “historio-sophical mistake,” where Europe extrapolated the unusually fortunate experiences of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and formulated a linear historical trajectory that ultimately and inevitably leads to ideal freedom. This mistaken abstraction provoked a transition from a “Post-Wall” era to a “Post-Western” era in our times.

Questioning World Order in the “Post-Western” World

From his research, Garton Ash observed that the values that Europe withholds and advocates are not shared with countries outside the “Western world.” Amidst Europe formulating a concerted and homogenous stance against Russia and reigniting a serious discussion for EU and NATO expansion, other emerging countries including China, India, Turkey, and more, have recognized Russia as a strategic partner rather than categorically labeling them as an enemy. While the reaction of the West towards such differences in opinion was characterized as “Europe’s loss of the Global South,” Garton Ash refuted this rhetoric since the term rejects recognizing the particularities of the countries. Meanwhile, he indicated that there is a paradox that the War in Ukraine not only accelerated the synchronization between the EU and NATO but also the introduction of a “Post-Western” world.

While Garton Ash maintained that there may be multiple possibilities for defining a “Post-Western” world, he argued that the term entails that the ability of Europe and the United States to set a universal agenda for world politics has terminated. Nonetheless, he expressed skepticism toward the claim that multipolarity — an idea that asserts Europe, China, and the United States as separate poles of the world order — may arise as the norm in international politics. According to Gardon Ash, not only it is difficult to guarantee coherence within the member states of the EU in issues of international politics, but the Atlanticist tendency of Eastern European countries may not coincide with the volition of Western European countries, which recognize Europe as a separate pole. Quoting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Garton Ash argued that the world we are entering can be characterized as “multi-aligned powers” instead of “multipolarity,” where different countries align with another multitude of countries depending on specific issues.

Garton Ash intended that the European faith of leading the world with the integrated post-national governance model of the European Union is no longer valid. However, he underlined that the demand for global governance has increased more than ever as the world collectively faces global challenges including climate change, infectious diseases, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence. Europe within the “Post-Western” world, according to Garton Ash, should have to find a balance between its interests and its values, as well as between competition and cooperation.

Highlights from the Discussion

The discussion session introduced problems in contemporary Europe and its future, especially with regard to the question of the implications of the War in Ukraine and the future of Europe. Lu Xiaoyu opened the session with the possible position of Russia in the “Post-War-in-Ukraine” order and the loss of European appeal in international politics. Garton Ash replied that the Russians should accept their status as a non-imperial state in order to ensure the stability of the international system; while Europe has witnessed a surge of political parties endorsing traditional, Christian, and particularistic political stances, which have been gaining more relevance within their democratic systems. Brexit was a testament to the European parties that encouraged them to attempt to change Europe from the inside rather than by leaving the system.

In answering the question from Professor Wang Jisi of the School of International Studies at Peking University, Garton Ash further elaborated his viewpoints on the terminology “Global South.” Despite the common usage of the term in the practice of international politics, Garton Ash believed that there is a breach between what the Western world conceives of the constituting countries of the Global South and the self-identity of such countries. Rather than categorizing the non-traditionally Western countries into a broad undistinguishable whole, we shall recognize “one as one and another as another.”

Garton Ash observed that the position of Europe in the technological dimensions of current international politics is extremely marginal when compared to the United States and China. He maintained that the lack of European innovation made in artificial intelligence will eventually render Europe and the United States to be mutually dependent on their technology and economic size. Meanwhile, he argued for strengthening the cause of global governance, since the impacts generated by tech companies are hardly bounded by the traditional borders of nation-states.

Further expanding on the War in Ukraine, Garton Ash raised his concern that the Ukrainian disarmament of nuclear weapons in the 1990s resulting in the invasion of its own territory might serve as a stimulus for nuclear proliferation. He called for a need for the widest possible cooperation within the global community to definitively withdraw the possible use of nuclear weapons. Echoing Michael Walzer’s notion of “minimalist morality,” Lu Xiaoyu and Garton Ash reached the conclusion that the concrete measures of global actors based on a collaborative and cooperative culture that promotes multilateralism occupy the primary importance.